Forecast of July Week 4

Review and Forecast of this week's Markets

Review of the Last week : Markets continued to rally last week on the back of positive International signals. Advances on the Covid-19 vaccine, IT giants Infosys and Wipro announcing impressive results have strengthened sentiment. While wholesale inflation registered negative growth, retail inflation also declined. The trade surplus was recorded as imports declined. Domestically, however, the rise in corona cases, sales of FIIs and DIIs have limited profits. Share-based movements took place in the wake of the companies quarterly results. Crude oil futures rose 6.2 percent to $ 43.1 a barrel. The Rupee closed at 75 against the dollar. Internationally .. the majority of global markets have benefited. News of the Covid-19 vaccine, US-China tensions, and the rise in corona cases have all had an impact. Overall, the Sensex ended 1.2 per cent higher at 37,020 points last week. The Nifty was up 1.2 per cent at 10,902. IT, oil-and-gas and healthcare stocks were the biggest gainers. Real estate, electricity, banking scripts were muted. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold a net worth of Rs 1,960 crore, while DIIs and funds sold shares worth Rs 1,584 crore. FPIs have withdrawn Rs 9015 crore so far in July. Rs 6058 crore was withdrawn from equities and Rs 2957 crore was sold in the debt segment.

The ratio of gains to losses is recorded as 3: 2.
Indicates purchases in selected shares in the markets.

Forecast for this week: Despite some stabilization, the Sensex gained for the fifth week in a row and closed above the critical 36,920 points. If the level moves above .. Sensex ‌ 37,700- 38,600 points are likely to run. In case of loss .. 36,500 level support will be available. Small, mid-cap stocks are stabilizing.


Impacting factors: Our indices may continue to have impacted by the global queues. This is due to the lack of key developments domestically. News of the Covid-19 cases and fears of a lockdown again in many cities could hurt sentiment. However, positive news on the progress of the vaccine will come together. Quarterly results, stock-based movements may continue in the wake of companies ’comments. Investors may focus on companies' AGMs and annual reports. The revised estimates of the rating agencies on the economy and GDP are going to be crucial. Leading companies like ACC, HUL, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, L&T, Biocon, ITC, Asian Paints and JSW Steel will release their results this week. Internationally, investors may look at Bank of Japan leverage decisions, PMI figures for Japan, the US and the UK, as well as the US unemployment rate. Investors can take signals from rupee movements, crude oil prices and FII investments against the dollar.

Immediate support levels: 36,512, 36,038, 35,706
Instant resistance levels: 37,550, 38,386, 39,000
Indices are likely to gain more in the short term.